We are using historical data on Dec corn and Nov soybeans tracing back to 2000. In that time, the grain prices set by February crop insurance had a strong correlation with the top 1/3 of the market. Below are visuals charting the trade range highs and lows for Dec and Nov futures. The green line represents the high tick, and the red line represents the low. The black line at 100% represents that year’s Feb spring price while the two blue lines represent the 20-year average high and low (corn 80%-121%; soybean: 87%-120%). Assuming the spring price is $11.85 on soybeans and corn at $4.59, we have a reference that may assist in making additional marketing decisions.
The high of the year for soybeans happened before March 1st only once (2019).
Here are some values to keep in mind:
140%- Black swan: $16.59
120%- 20- Yr. Ave: $14.22
110%- 5- Yr. Ave: $13.03 (6 of the past 8 years)
80%- Natural put: $9.48 (every year for the past 12 years)
The highs have come before March 1st only twice (2001, 2013). Below are values associated with Dec 21st corn, assuming $4.59 for the Feb spring price:
150%- Black swan: $6.88
120%- 20 Yr. Ave: $5.50
110%- 5 Yr. Ave: $5.04
80%- Natural put: $3.67
Futures prices may have already factored in the seasonal aspects of supply and demand. Unless otherwise indicated, this is not to be an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures or options on futures contracts. This data is from sources we believe to be reliable but cannot guarantee its accuracy. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Trading commodity futures and options on futures involve substantial risk and may not be appropriate for everyone. Past performance may not necessarily be indicative of future results.
